Eskom this week released its outlook for winter, and the power utility says it anticipates a reduced intensity and frequency of loadshedding, compared to winter 2023, limiting it to Stage 2.

The power utility says this is due to the success achieved with implementing its Generation Operational Recovery Plan, approved by the Board and initiated in March 2023, together with strategic investment in planned maintenance during the summer.

This as the country has not had any loadshedding for more than a month, a milestone last achieved on 10 April 2022, when Eskom marked 28 consecutive days without loadshedding.

Eskom says over the past few months they have placed strategic focus on people, plant performance, processes and governance, and together with the National Energy Crisis Committee, the outlook for the upcoming winter season is more favourable than the previous one.

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Winter 2024 outlook:

• Loadshedding limited to Stage 2
• Reduced unplanned outages expected to range from 14 000MW to 15 500MW
• A maximum of 17 000MW of unplanned outages at Stage 5 loadshedding

The power utility says this forecast is a marked improvement from winter 2023, which predicted unplanned outages ranging from 15 000MW to 16 500MW and a maximum of 18 000MW— a scenario where the maximum unplanned outages, or Stage 8, was successfully avoided.

Successes achieved between in the last year:

• A 9% reduction in unplanned load losses from April 2023 to March 2024.
• A 19.2% reduction in unit trips between 2023 and 2024 financial years
• The restoration of three Kusile units that were offline since October 2022 and the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 5, collectively contributing an additional 3 200MW into the grid from September to December 2023.
• The successful completion of the Koeberg Unit 1 steam generator replacement as part of the Long-Term Operation project, which has restored 930MW of generation capacity.
• Progress on several projects aimed at minimising Partial Load Losses, including the cooling tower refurbishments at Kriel and Tutuka, and re-bagging at Majuba, with the completion of Tutuka units 1 & 2.

Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane says a strategic move this past summer was to increase planned maintenance to an average of 8000MW.

“This decision was aimed at securing long-term operational benefits and ensuring the stability of the energy supply. The peak of planned maintenance was executed between December 2023 and January 2024, where we reached an average of 18% of the generation capacity. The last time we saw a similar surge in planned maintenance was around November and December 2020.” 

He says as we transition into winter, he is encouraged by the performance of the fleet since mid-March.

“With the base case reduction of 1 000MW in unplanned outages compared to the previous winter, we are resolute in our commitment to sustain this positive trajectory. We are targeting to keep unplanned outages within the range of 14 000MW to 15 500MW whilst we turn our attention to addressing the contributors of unreliability of our plants. Remaining within this range of unplanned outages will enable us to maintain loadshedding at lower stages throughout the winter. While we acknowledge the challenges ahead, we are redoubling our efforts.” 

Eskom says it will continue to strategically utilise its peaking stations, including the open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). These turbines are typically dispatched to meet the high electricity demand during the morning and evening peaks.

The power utility will however aim to use the OCGTs for the shortest possible durations, as the coal generation fleet becomes more reliable.

Compared to April 2023, Eskom says it has spent 50% less on diesel in April 2024.

Collective effort needed to end loadshedding:

Eskom has reiterated it needs citizens’ support to alleviate pressure on the power system by using electricity wisely and participating in energy-saving initiatives.

The proliferation of roof top solar, inverters and battery storage is likely to continue as more commercial and private customers attempt to reduce their reliance on Eskom.

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