A new study by Stellenbosch researcher, Dr Rebecca Selkirk, has raised questions about the value of holding learners back in Grades 10 and 11 ahead of matric exams.

Her research suggests that high repetition rates may not be the key to stronger matric results, and that alternative support strategies could be more effective.

Repetition Rates Before the Pandemic

Pre-pandemic, about 31% of Grade 10 learners and 24% of Grade 11 learners repeated their year in the Western Cape.

“We spend a lot of money on retaining learners in Grades 10 and 11, where repetition’s effectiveness is unclear, and the associated dropout risk is highest,” Selkirk said.

Despite these high numbers, policy and research attention have been limited.

The Pandemic Changed the Picture

Selkirk’s study found a positive link between Grade 11 repetition and matric pass rates in pre-pandemic years. Schools may have benefited by either “gatekeeping” access to matric or helping learners catch up.

However:

• When repetition rates dropped sharply at the end of 2020—from 12% to 6%—the link weakened significantly.
• Matric results did not collapse as expected, and in some cases performed better than predicted, particularly in less-resourced schools.

“This suggests that holding learners back may not be the main factor driving stronger matric results,” Selkirk said.

“High repetition rates may not be justified, and alternatives could be equally or more beneficial to struggling learners.”

Why Repetition May Not Be the Answer

Lower repetition can reduce class sizes.

Avoiding unnecessary repetition may prevent disengagement and negative psychosocial effects.

Pandemic support programmes may have compensated for learning losses more effectively than repetition.

Selkirk also cautions that an overemphasis on matric pass rates can lead schools to make short-term decisions:

“Focusing too much on matric may encourage high repetition, easier subject choices, and concentrating resources only on matric learners—practices that could be harmful to students and the education system.”

Policy Implications

High repetition rates are expensive and carry a high dropout risk.

Alternatives such as targeted academic support and smaller classes could improve outcomes without the costs of repeating learners.

Policymakers are urged to rethink the reliance on repetition and focus on long-term learner support rather than short-term matric statistics.

“There is enough evidence to suggest that high Grade 10 and 11 repetition rates may not be justified,” Selkirk said.

“Reducing reliance on repetition could free up resources to improve the wider education system.”

The research suggests that South African schools may be overusing repetition before matric, and smarter, evidence-based interventions could help struggling learners more effectively.