Local economists say the recent United States Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs provides temporary relief for global trade partners, but caution that the threat of new tariffs remains.

The court decision, delivered on 20 February, declared the sweeping tariff measures illegal, reaffirming that changes to US import duties must comply with the rule of law and congressional authority.

Professor Raymond Parsons, an economist at the North-West University Business School, described the ruling as a welcome development for countries such as South Africa that have faced an increasingly aggressive US trade stance.

He said the judgment confirmed that businesses affected by tariff changes have legal remedies available to challenge such measures. However, Parsons noted that key questions remain unresolved.

“The Supreme Court did not address whether the illegal import duties already paid would need to be repaid, and this will have to be litigated separately,” he said.

Although the ruling effectively invalidated the 30% import tariff previously imposed on South African goods, Parsons warned that expectations of a return to stable trade conditions may be premature.

Within days of the judgment, the US administration announced a new broad tariff of 15% on imports for a 150-day period, pending congressional approval. Certain sector-specific tariffs, including those affecting steel and automotive products, also fall outside the scope of the court’s decision.

According to Parsons, the rapid policy shifts are likely to prolong uncertainty for businesses.

“The immediate economic impact is inevitably a recipe for more confusion and uncertainty about future US trade policy,” he said, adding that South Africa urgently needs clarity given its significant trade relationship with the United States.

He also stressed that negotiations around the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remain separate from the court ruling, meaning difficult trade discussions with Washington still lie ahead.

Meanwhile, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said the revised tariff announcement could improve conditions for South African agricultural exporters, if it remains in place.

Sihlobo explained that the proposed 15% tariff would represent a significant reduction from the earlier 30% duties that weighed heavily on exporters.

“If this is a new possibility, then it will bode well for South Africa,” he said, adding that lower tariffs could restore competitiveness for local producers in the US market.

The United States accounts for about 4% of South Africa’s agricultural exports, including citrus, grapes, berries, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots and nuts.

Sihlobo says trade data already shows the impact of earlier tariff uncertainty. South African agricultural exports to the US declined by 11% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 to 144 million US dollars, before dropping sharply by 39% in the final quarter to 81 million dollars.

Annual agricultural exports to the US totalled 504 million US dollars in 2025, down 3% from the previous year, a decline partly cushioned by higher export volumes during a temporary tariff pause earlier in the year.

Sihlobo cautioned that frequent policy changes and rapid announcements from the US administration continue to create instability for exporters and investors alike.