Innovative Rip Current Forecasting Model Launched for Cape Town Beaches

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has introduced a cutting-edge rip current forecasting model to enhance safety at Cape Town beaches.

Unveiled on November 21, 2024, in Milnerton, the model aims to help beachgoers and lifeguards anticipate dangerous rip current conditions, potentially reducing drownings at six high-risk beaches along the Cape Peninsula.

Rip currents, fast-moving water channels that extend from the shoreline into the surf zone, are responsible for over 100 fatalities annually worldwide and contribute significantly to coastal deaths in South Africa.

The National Sea Rescue Institute (NSRI) reports that rip currents remain a leading cause of drowning, with the City of Cape Town recording 30 fatal incidents during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 beach seasons, many linked to these currents.

2024 also saw numerous drowning incidents at beaches, linked to rip currents.

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“This is the first scientific tool of its kind in South Africa,” said Ms. Lebogang Makgati, SAWS Senior Manager: Marine.

“It provides timely, accurate rip current hazard forecasts, allowing beachgoers to make informed decisions and empowering lifeguards and emergency responders to better prepare and respond.”

The model monitors six beaches—Blouberg, Milnerton, Fish Hoek, Monwabisi, Strand, and Kogel Bay—chosen for their high incidence of rip current-related incidents.

Using wind, wave, and tidal data, risk levels are assigned based on conditions such as wave height, direction, and tidal stages. The user-friendly, colour-coded outputs highlight the likelihood and timing of rip current formation, simplifying risk communication.

SAWS plans to roll out the system during the 2024 festive season, with information available via its marine web portal. Expansion to beaches in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal is also underway.

Funded by the UK’s Newton Fund and supported by partners like LifeSaving South Africa, the City of Cape Town, and Stellenbosch University, this initiative represents a significant step toward safer South African beaches.

Beachgoers are advised to remain vigilant, heed safety warnings, and swim only in designated areas supervised by lifeguards, who would have access to the latest data on rip currents, thanks to this forecasting model.

What to do if you are caught in a rip current:

Don’t panic
Stay afloat by treading water – moving your arms and legs in circular movements – and using the air in your lungs for added buoyancy.
As difficult as it sounds – go with the current and stay afloat – do not try to swim against the current, it will only tire you out.
Shout for help (bystanders on the beach should call NSRI and continue to monitor where the casualties are in the water).
At your first opportunity swim across the beachfront until you are free of the rip current.
Then use the incoming waves to get back to shore.
Where NSRI pink buoys are stationed along the beach – bystanders should throw a pink buoy towards the casualty/s in the water.
Know the emergency numbers: NSRI: 112 or 087 094 9774.