While the first and second quarter crime statistics for the 2025/26 financial year show slight decreases in several crime categories, compared with the previous year, the Police Portfolio Committee Chairperson Ian Cameron says these numbers often hide the real scale of violence that South Africans live with every day.
According to the SAPS, the murder rate nationally has decreased by 6.9% between April and June, compared to the same period in 2024, while murder stats between July and September show an 11.5% decrease nationally, compared to the same period in 2024.
But instead of comparing the two quarters to their respective periods in the previous financial year, Cameron published a comparison of crime levels quarter-on-quarter.
He says that when the actual raw figures for the first six months of the 2025/26 financial year are compared, a much clearer and far more concerning picture emerges.
Below, Cameron has set out in detail, category by category, how crime levels have trended upwards between quarters, with the goal being to show what the numbers really mean for communities on the ground.
Total Contact Crime
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 153 637
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 160 935
- Trend: ⬆️ +4.7% (+7 298 cases)
South Africa recorded over 314 000 contact crimes in six months. Even a “small increase” in percentage terms masks thousands of additional victims. The volume remains extraordinarily high, and it is impossible to claim that such levels reflect any improvement in public safety.
Contact-Related Crime (Arson + Malicious Damage to Property)
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 25 414
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 27 614
- Trend: ⬆️ +8.6% (+2 200 cases)
This category captures gang intimidation, extortion-linked destruction, taxi-route conflict, violent protests, and retaliatory attacks. An almost 9% rise in one quarter signals an increasingly unstable and violent community environment.
Contact Sexual Offences (SAPS Web Category)
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 196
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 170
- Trend: ⬇️ –13.2% (–26 cases)
This category is not the full picture. SAPS reports sexual offences differently across its systems. The figures above are incomplete and should not be mistaken for a reduction in sexual violence. The next section shows the real rape numbers.
Murder
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 5 430
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 5 270
- Trend: ⬇️ –2.9% (–160 cases)
While this looks like progress, it still means 5 270 people were murdered in 90 days—about 58 murders every single day. Communities do not experience a difference when the baseline is this high.
Attempted Murder
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 5 624
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 5 519
- Trend: ⬇️ –1.9% (–105 cases)
Attempted murder remains above 5 500 every quarter. These numbers reflect thousands of shootings, stabbings, and violent attacks where victims survived by chance or medical intervention. A 1.9% reduction is immaterial to the lived experience of persistent violence.
Assault GBH (Grievous Bodily Harm)
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 31 221
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 32 854
- Trend: ⬆️ +5.2% (+1 633 cases)
This is one of the most important indicators of day-to-day violence. In Q2 alone, more than 32 800 serious assaults were recorded—roughly 365 extremely violent attacks every single day. This upward trend shows why so many people feel unsafe even when murder numbers marginally decline.
Common Assault
- Q1–Q2 (Apr–Sep 2025): Tens of thousands of cases per quarter
Common assault remains one of the highest-volume crimes in the country and one of the most under-reported. Domestic tensions, disputes between neighbours, alcohol-related violence, and community conflict drive these numbers far beyond what SAPS captures.
The lived reality is worse than the statistics suggest.
Rape (Full SAPS Figures)
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 6 559
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 7 204
- Trend: ⬆️ +9.8% (+645 cases)
This is one of the most alarming changes in the period. An increase of nearly 10% means hundreds more victims in one quarter alone. Given the massive under-reporting of sexual violence—estimates range from 60% to 80%—the true scale is far worse.
Violence Against Women and Children (VAWC)
- Time period: Q1–Q2 (Apr–Sep 2025)
- Combining the major categories reveals a deeply concerning trend:
• Rape increased by 9.8%
• Assault GBH increased by 5.2%
• Women and children make up a significant portion of victims in all major contact crimes
• Domestic and intimate-partner violence is severely under-reported
The lived experience for women and children is deteriorating, not stabilising.
Carjacking
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): 4 671
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): 4 784
- Trend: ⬆️ +2.4% (+113 cases)
South Africa experiences more than 50 hijackings every day. Even small percentage increases conceal how severe and traumatising this crime type remains for ordinary people.
Putting It All Together: What These Figures Really Mean
Across Q1 and Q2 of the 2025/26 year:
- Total Contact Crime rose by 4.7%
- Contact-Related Crime rose by 8.6%
- Assault GBH rose by 5.2%
- Rape rose by 9.8%
- Carjacking rose by 2.4%
- Murder fell by 2.9%
- Attempted murder fell by 1.9%
Even the decreases are off an extremely high baseline.
In six months, South Africa recorded:
- Over 314 000 contact crimes
- More than 10 700 murders and attempted murders combined
- Over 13 700 rapes
- More than 64 000 serious assaults
“When crime volumes remain this high, South Africans cannot be expected to feel safer simply because a few categories shift by one or two percent.”
