11.1 C
Cape Town
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Home Blog Page 77

SA’s ARV programme hardly grew in 2025, according to latest estimates

ARV
South Africa had an estimated 7.9 million people living with HIV in mid-2025, accounting for 12.3% of the total population. (Photo: Pexels)

 

The number of people in South Africa on antiretroviral treatment remained roughly unchanged from 2024 to 2025, according to just-published estimates from the leading mathematical model of HIV in the country. This suggests that the disruption of US aid for HIV services has slowed the growth of our HIV treatment programme, but the impact so far is not as severe as some researchers feared it might be. Marcus Low reports.

 

South Africa’s HIV treatment programme grew by a mere 40 000 from 2024 to 2025, taking the tally of people on antiretroviral treatment from 6.14 million to 6.18 million. This is according to just published figures from Thembisa, the leading mathematical model of HIV in South Africa. The last time year-on-year growth of the HIV programme was below 100 000 was 20 years ago.

 

The new estimates provide the most reliable big picture numbers so far on how the withdrawal of United States aid has impacted HIV in South Africa. The numbers are somewhat complicated to interpret given that year-on-year growth of the HIV programme had already been slowing prior to the US aid cuts (as shown in the below graph). You can explore the new estimates on Spotlight’s HIV dashboard.

 

Though concerning, the local impact of disruptions to US aid appears not to be as severe as some worried it might be. In a study published last year in the journal AIDS, researchers estimated that in a worst-case scenario, US aid cuts might lead to a 28% reduction in the number of people receiving antiretroviral treatment, a 56% increase in new HIV infections,  and a 38% increase in the number of AIDS deaths from 2025 to 2028. While the impact of the aid cuts is still unfolding, the new Thembisa numbers suggest that South Africa is not on this worst case trajectory.

 

Among others, the new Thembisa estimates take into account Department of Health data up to August 2025 – roughly six months after the initial aid cuts. The numbers should be treated with some caution, given that some longer-term impacts might look quite different from what was observed in this first six-month period.

 

The new estimates also suggest that other HIV programme impacts haven’t been as severe as feared, although there are signs that in several areas progress has slowed or stalled.

 

The number of people starting to take HIV prevention pills decreased from 628 000 in 2023/24, to 579 000 in 2024/25), but the total number of HIV tests performed went up very slightly from 18.6 million to 18.7 million. The number of voluntary medical male circumcisions increased from 258 000 to 418 000.

 

The new Thembisa estimates suggest that the Department of Health’s ambitious ‘Close the Gap’ campaign won’t meet its targets. Launched in February 2025, the campaign’s aim was to put an additional 1.1 million people on treatment by the end of 2025 and thus to take the total number of people on HIV treatment to around seven million. The new Thembisa estimates suggest the health department fell around 800 000 short of the target and projects that the seven-million mark won’t be met in the next few years.

 

The new figures also show that hundreds of thousands of people cycle in and out of treatment every year. Thus, while over 700 000 people are thought to have restarted treatment in 2024/2025 and another 180 000 started treatment for the first time, almost as many also stopped taking treatment (which is why the overall increase of people on treatment is only around 40 000).

 

Over 50 000 AIDS deaths

 

Deaths due to HIV remain worryingly high. The Thembisa team estimates that there was 53 000 HIV-related deaths in the year from mid-2024 to mid-2025. This is a thousand fewer than the 54 000 people with HIV who died of non-HIV-related causes over the same period. On average, people living with HIV are thus now slightly more likely to die of non-HIV-related causes than of AIDS.

 

There was an estimated 146 000 new HIV infections in South Africa from mid-2024 to mid-2025. Since this is more than the number of people with HIV who died over the same period (around 107 000), the absolute number of people living with HIV in South Africa is still going up.

 

According to the new model outputs, an estimated 7.9 million people in South Africa were living with HIV in mid-2025 (12.3% of the population). Careful readers may have noticed that the estimate we reported on last year was eight million. The difference does not indicate an actual year-on-year decline – in this week’s Thembisa publication the HIV prevalence estimates for several years going back have been lowered slightly.

 

Mixed picture on 95-95-95 targets

 

South Africa’s progress against the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets is mixed. These targets, also adopted in the country’s National Strategic Plan for HIV, TB and STIs, aim for 95% of people living with HIV to be diagnosed, 95% of those diagnosed to be on treatment, and 95% of those on treatment to be virally suppressed. Viral suppression means that antiretroviral therapy has reduced replication of HIV in the body to extremely low levels.

 

With an estimated 96% of people living with HIV having been diagnosed as of 2025, South Africa has exceeded the first of these targets. Only 82% of those diagnosed were however on treatment in 2025 – falling well short of the second target. Around 95% of those on treatment were virally suppressed in 2025, thus reaching the third target.

 

Note: This article is based on outputs from Thembisa version 5.0 – published on May 12, 2026. We have mostly quoted 2024/2025 figures since they are based on more data, and thus more reliable than the estimates for 2025/2026. We have rounded some numbers to make the text more accessible. The graph was made using the R package ggplot2.

 

This article was first published by Spotlight – health journalism in the public interest. Sign up to the Spotlight newsletter.

 

Man jailed for six years after using Pitbull in robberies

pitbull

 

A man who used a pitbull to intimidate and rob a resident in the Kensington area has been sentenced to six years’ direct imprisonment, with the City of Cape Town lauding its Animal Control Unit (ACU) for helping to secure the conviction.

 

The incident occurred in July last year, while the victim was sitting in a park in the area.

 

The suspect initially walked past the complainant with a pitbull before returning moments later and demanding the complainant’s cellphone. The suspect used the dog to intimidate the victim.

 

Community members later assisted in identifying the suspect, who was known in the area for committing robberies using the dog as a weapon.

 

The City’s MMC for Safety and Security, JP Smith, says the Animal Control Unit was instructed by the prosecutor in the case to remove the dog from the suspect’s home.

 

“Despite challenges in locating the suspect at home, officers made multiple attempts before successfully removing the animal, bringing an end to a series of robberies committed in and around Kensington.”

 

 

Smith says Pitbulls are not inherently dangerous dogs, but humans turn them into dangerous animals.

 

“Ensuring there are consequences for owners who cruelly abuse these animals and use them as weapons is key to stopping this destructive culture.”

 

He has commended the Police and the Animal Control Unit for their persistence and dedication in ensuring the successful removal of the dog and supporting the investigation that led to the conviction and sentencing of the offender.

 

Flood relief available at Newlands Cricket Stadium

IMAGE: Gift of the Givers

 

 

Locals adversely affected by last week’s floods can, from today (18 May 2026), get some much-needed essentials at the Newlands Cricket Stadium.  

 

This is because the Gift of the Givers is partnered with the Western Province Cricket Association to make humanitarian aid accessible to flood victims.  

 

Adverse weather began in some parts of the province in the latter part of the first week of May, but it affected the entire province last Monday and Tuesday, resulting in widespread infrastructure damage and the displacement of families. 

 

The adverse weather also claimed the lives of several people. In Cape Town alone, more than 100,000 people were affected. 

 

READ MORE: More than 100,000 people in Cape Town affected by storms – Smile 90.4FM

 

Now, Gift of the Givers and the Western Province Cricket Association (WCPA) are offering a beacon of hope to the many people building back their lives.  

 

People can collect essential items such as hygiene products, non-perishable foods, water and clothing at the Newlands Cricket Stadium.  

 

The WCPA CEO, Corrie Van Zyl, said they are proud to partner with the Gift of the Givers for this initiative.  

 

“While Western Province Cricket Association and Newlands have also felt the effects of the recent storms, it has not been as traumatising as it has been for many communities across the Western Cape. Our hearts go out to those in smaller and rural areas who have suffered immense loss. I’ve personally witnessed the devastation, and it is deeply moving,” said van Zyl. 

 

The public has also been urged to participate in the initiative, but by donating some of the essentials needed or by making financial contributions via Gift of the Givers or Backabuddy. The stadium will also serve as a drop-off point for donations.

  

“Through this partnership, Newlands will become a drop-off point for much-needed supplies, as many people have lost their livelihoods and currently have no access to basic necessities such as water, food and blankets. We urge the public to support Gift of the Givers in reaching those who need it most.”

 

 

The Gift of the Givers’ Ali Sablay said this follows days of relief efforts across the province.  

 

“Since the onset of the disaster, teams have been assisting major informal settlements across the Cape Metropole, while additional teams have been deployed to outlying regions including the Breede Valley, Cape Winelands District, Cape Agulhas Municipality, and Langeberg Municipality. Since Monday, Gift of the Givers teams have distributed in excess of 150,000 hot meals, along with blankets, hygiene packs, mattresses, and baby care supplies to affected residents.”  

 

Click HERE to make us your trusted source of news on Google

Teenager Missing, Four Rescued After Monwabisi Beach Incident

teenagers

 

A 17-year-old boy remains missing after a drowning incident at Monwabisi Beach on Saturday morning, while four other teenagers were rescued from dangerous surf conditions.

 

According to the National Sea Rescue Institute (NSRI), emergency crews were activated shortly after 11am following eyewitness reports of multiple swimmers in distress at the popular False Bay beach.

 

NSRI Strandfontein station commander Nicolette Whitehead said five local teenage boys, believed to be between the ages of 13 and 17, had reportedly been caught in strong rip currents while swimming.

 

By the time rescuers arrived, four of the teenagers had already been brought ashore by members of the public. One bystander, believed to be a lifeguard and reportedly wearing a lifeguard shirt, used an NSRI pink rescue buoy stationed at the beach to save one of the boys. Surfers at the scene also assisted, using their surfboards to help rescue three others.

 

The four rescued teenagers were found on the beach suffering from symptoms linked to non-fatal drowning. Two were reported to be in stable condition, while two others were described as serious but stable. All four were transported to hospital by ambulance and are expected to recover.

 

A large-scale search operation was launched involving NSRI rescue swimmers, police, City of Cape Town Fire and Rescue Services, EMS rescue crews, Law Enforcement and Police Water Policing and Diving Services.

 

Despite extensive sea and shoreline searches, no sign of the missing teenager had been found by Sunday. Police divers continue ongoing search efforts.

 

The NSRI commended the eyewitness who raised the alarm, as well as the unidentified Good Samaritans and surfers who helped save lives before emergency services arrived.

 

Police have opened an investigation into the incident.

[LISTEN] Louw Venter: The Deep Cuts With Deeper Punchlines

Award winning writer/performer, Louw Venter, returns to the stage with his new one-hander Dead Dad.

 

 

There’s more to Louw Venter than just punchlines.
If you’re don’t know who Louw Venter is, remember the days of Corne en Twakkie, he was the other half that brought us The Most Amazing Show which ran on SABC 2 in the mid 2000’s
https://img.capetownetc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/118671948_2674057576166882_1695637453087772228_n-e1647106156252.jpg
Louw Venter has returned to the stage with a new one-man show, Dead Dad, which premiered to rave reviews and standing ovations in April 2026.
The show, which has garnered a cult following, is a comedic and poignant look at grief, with a plot centered on a funeral eulogy that turns into an unexpected journey.
None

Louw joined The Joy Ride with Angel Campey to chat about the show, Dead Dad and everything else in between.
Book your tickets now at The Drama Factory.
error: Content is protected !!