Eskom has provided a Winter 2025 power system outlook, confirming that loadshedding is expected to be avoided, provided unplanned maintenance remains below 13GW.
The power utility says the system is in a much improved state and a more reliable position than in recent years.
The only reason loadshedding might be implemented is if unplanned outages increase to 15GW, then it will be limited to a maximum of only 21 days on Stage 2.
This is a vast improvement over last year’s worst-case prediction of Stage 5 loadshedding over the winter season.
Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane says this improved winter outlook is due to a 3.1GW decrease in unplanned outages compared to the previous year.
Last winter had no loadshedding, with average unplanned outages at 12.3GW — significantly below the Winter 2024 base-case projection of 14GW.
“This year’s Winter Outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency. Loadshedding was the lowest in Eskom’s last Financial Year (FY) 2025 than in the previous 2 years. In FY 2025, we delivered power 96% of the time; in the previous year, the figure was just 9.9%. Our diesel open cycle gas turbines were utilised approximately 50% less in FY2025 compared to the two previous financial years, saving around R16 billion.”
While there has been steady progress, there have been some setbacks, following bouts of loadshedding in January to April 2025.
Marokane says a targeted plan has been put in place to reinforce operational discipline and accelerate recovery initiatives to address the root causes related to recent loadshedding events.
The Winter Outlook is based upon several key performance indicators including the fact that power plant availability improved to 61% in 2024/25, up from 54.6% the previous year.
Kusile Units 2 and 3 have also been successfully reconnected to the main stacks and are now operating with the flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) system. Unit 1 is currently undergoing a scheduled outage and is expected to return to service in June, also connected to the main stack.
Kusile Unit 6 was synchronised to the grid on 23 March 2025, contributing 800MW and is scheduled to be in commercial operation by September 2025.
In addition, Medupi Unit 4’s return is progressing well and is anticipated to return 800MW to service by the end of May 2025.
