South Africans should brace for another steep fuel price increase in May.

According to mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund, the under-recovery on petrol is between R2.82 and R3.20, while diesel’s under-recovery sits at around R9.60. (An under-recovery indicates a hike is likely.)

If the diesel increase materialises, it could push the price of a litre beyond R40, with diesel already exceeding R30 in some areas. (Diesel is not fully regulated like petrol and can vary by region.)

The expected increases are largely due to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has added to this uncertainty, with some ships reportedly turned back by the US in the first 42 hours of the blockade.

South Africa currently has sufficient fuel supply, with the Fuel Industry Association confirming that deliveries for May and June have been secured, with more on the way.

However, the looming hikes could trigger a repeat of the situation seen towards the end of March, when logistical challenges led to some fuel stations running dry, alongside allegations of hoarding and price-gouging.

It is also unlikely that Treasury will extend the R3 fuel levy cut into May, as April’s relief has cost the fiscus R6 billion, which will need to be recovered elsewhere.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said at the time that the relief measure was intended for one month, but would be reviewed monthly over the following two months to determine whether it could be extended.

The under-recovery on fuel as of 13 April 2026, via the Central Energy Fund: