Business leader Adi Enthoven believes South Africa may have finally halted its decade-long economic decline, and could be entering a new era of growth and renewal.
Delivering the University of Stellenbosch Thought Leader Lecture on 4 November 2025, Enthoven said there was mounting evidence that “our decline has been arrested, our trajectory is once again positive, and this fact is of profound significance for our future.”
“The dominant narrative today is one of failure and decay,” he said. “But I believe the country has turned the corner, and this could herald the start of a new era of prosperity.”
From Boom to Bust
Enthoven traced South Africa’s economic journey since 1994, describing the first two decades of democracy as a period of significant growth and social progress. Between 1994 and 2014, GDP grew by an average of 3% a year, per capita income increased by 40%, inflation was halved, and employment nearly doubled.
Government debt fell to record lows, tax revenues surged, and millions were lifted out of poverty. “Substantial growth in GDP per capita markedly strengthened the financial and social fabric of our nation,” Enthoven said.
But the tide turned after 2014. The following decade was marked by stagnation, state capture, and collapsing infrastructure. Growth dropped to an average of just 0.7%, government debt ballooned, and state-owned enterprises, especially Eskom and Transnet, fell into crisis.
By late 2023, South Africa had lost nearly a third of the gains made during the first 20 years of democracy. “It seemed that the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel had literally and figuratively been extinguished,” he said.
Reform Takes Root
Enthoven credited a “quiet structural transformation” of the economy, initiated in 2019 under then-Finance Minister Tito Mboweni, as the turning point. Mboweni’s National Treasury paper on economic reform laid the foundation for the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (ERRP), launched by President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2020.
At the centre of this reform agenda was Operation Vulindlela, a joint initiative between the Presidency and National Treasury aimed at unblocking key constraints in the energy, logistics, water, and telecommunications sectors.
Crucially, business stepped in to support implementation. Over 160 CEOs representing R11 trillion in market capitalisation joined the effort through Business for South Africa (B4SA), providing technical expertise and resources.
Ending Load Shedding
The most dramatic turnaround, Enthoven said, has been in the energy sector.
After a decade of decline, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) rose from a record low of 51% in 2023 to above 70% in 2025, while the country moved from near collapse to surplus electricity.
The improvement, he said, was driven by new leadership at Eskom, the unbundling of the utility’s operations, and the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, which opened the electricity market to private competition.
More than R400 billion has already been invested in new generation capacity, and over R2 trillion in private energy infrastructure is expected over the next decade.
Progress in Transport and Water
Reforms are also showing results in logistics. Ship waiting times at major ports have dropped from 21 days in 2023 to around two days, and freight rail volumes are recovering. New private rail and port concessions are unlocking billions in investment.
In the water sector, the government has begun clearing backlogs in water-use licensing and established a Water Partnership Office to facilitate public-private projects worth an estimated R900 billion by 2030.
Broader Reform Momentum
Operation Vulindlela has also accelerated long-delayed reforms in spectrum allocation, visa processing, and digital governance. Mobile data costs have dropped following the 2022 high-demand spectrum auction, while a new Points-Based Visa System and Trusted Employer Scheme are streamlining work visa approvals.
Signs of Recovery
Although GDP growth remains subdued, Enthoven pointed to encouraging indicators:
- The country has posted two consecutive primary budget surpluses for the first time in 15 years.
- Debt-to-GDP ratios are stabilising below 80%.
- Inflation has fallen to 3.4%, within target.
- Investor confidence is improving, with bond inflows of R129 billion this year and a 58% surge in the JSE Top 40 Index since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
- International institutions, including the Bank of America and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), expect growth to strengthen to between 1.5% and 3.5% by 2029 as reforms take hold.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the progress, Enthoven cautioned that sustaining reform momentum will be critical. He warned against complacency now that load shedding has ended and ports are improving.
He identified three key risks:
- Crime and corruption, which he called “the new face of State Capture.”
- Dysfunctional local government, especially in Johannesburg.
- An unprofessional civil service, which continues to undermine state capacity.
He welcomed the Public Service Amendment Bill, currently before Parliament, as a vital step toward professionalising the civil service.
Finally, he stressed the importance of political stability. “The positive trajectory that we are on depends on the political centre holding,” he said. “A swing to populism or a collapse of the GNU would be catastrophic.”
“All the Great Changes Have Been Accomplished by Optimists”
Enthoven concluded on a note of cautious optimism, quoting journalist Thomas Friedman:
“Pessimists are usually right and optimists are usually wrong, but all the great changes have been accomplished by optimists.”
He urged South Africans to reject “declinism bias” and recognise the early signs of renewal: “While our economic picture is not yet healthy, our direction has changed, and that is the most important change of all.”
To read his full speech, click HERE.
