The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that US President Donald Trump intends to terminate South Africa’s access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade preference program as of January 1, 2027.

In a statement quoting Ambassador Jamieson Greer, he said Trump notified Congress of this intent, citing barriers to US trade and investment, corruption, and threats to US national security and foreign policy interests.

Rwanda is also affected.

“The Office of the United States Trade Representative led the annual interagency review of sub-Saharan African countries’ eligibility for the AGOA trade preference program. Based on the review, President Trump found that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa are engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA’s eligibility criteria.”

Greer says the Trump Administration is working to ensure its African partners take the necessary steps to meet the eligibility criteria.

Before the announcement, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said South Africa would be ready for any eventuality.

“Whatever the outcome, our economy will remain stable, our exporters will keep trading, and the government stands ready to support our economy, particularly the hard-working SA business community and their employees who are the backbone of our society and communities from which we all come. Our door to the US remains open. Our economy is resilient. Our exporters are resourceful, and this government stands behind them.”

A leading Agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, has described this as South Africa’s graduation out of AGOA, adding that it doesn’t mean we won’t have access to the US market. He says access will just be at slightly higher tariffs.

“While we are now in a different political climate, I think it’s important to remember that aside from the issues the U.S. raised about South Africa’s eligibility to be part of AGOA, there have been some conversations for some time. For example, back in 2014, the focus, amongst other things, was on the reality that South Africa is an upper-middle-income country and should have graduated from AGOA to a full bilateral trade agreement with the US.”

He says what this means in practice is that the country would face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs the current U.S. Administration added to various countries.

Currently, some South African products enter the U.S. market at 12.5% tariffs (Liberation Day tariff). Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, slightly reducing the competitiveness of some South African products in the US market.

Sihlobo says South Africa’s agriculture sector has proven to be resilient, with agricultural exports to the US increasing by 56% from the first quarter of 2026 to the second quarter of 2026, to $123 million.

The US remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports. Main exports include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.

“Again, South Africa’s graduation from AGOA must be viewed in context and may not mean a catastrophe. This is not to understate the impact some industries may feel as the increase in tariffs slightly reduces their competitiveness. Still, we must manage the sentiment and narrative around this issue well. Above all, this yet again reminds us of the need to work hard to diversify South Africa’s export markets to growing regions such as Asia and the Middle East.”