Eskom says loadshedding could intensify to Stage 8 this winter, if current interventions to increase supply and decrease demand are not successful.
Eskom briefed the media this morning on the latest state of the power system, emphasising Stage 8 over this winter is the worst-case scenario.
The biggest reasons for the big risk of Stage 8 is the fact that Kusile’s Units 1, 2 and 3, which have been shut down due to damage to feed pipes to their shared chimney, are only expected to be commissioned by December, with temporary chimneys.
They are not going to be able to operate at full capacity until exemption from environmental regulations is provided.
In addition, Kusile’s Unit 5, a new unit, is also expected to be switched on in December. Koeberg Unit 1 is also unavailable due to planned maintenance.
Here are the three scenarios for winter:
- With breakdowns or capacity unavailable due to unplanned maintenance at 15 000MW,
loadshedding might be predominantly implemented at Stage 5 for the winter period. - Should breakdowns reach 16 500MW, loadshedding might be implemented at Stage 6.
- If unplanned outages averages to 18 000MW, loadshedding might be required every day and might be implemented up to Stage 8.
Low risk of national blackout
Acting CEO Calib Cassim has stressed that the increase in loadshedding levels does not mean there is a greater risk of a national blackout, instead loadshedding is one of the processes the power utility uses to prevent such an occurrence by managing the demand for electricity at a given time.
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The power utility has also moved to reassure South Africans that just because provision is being made for Stage 16 loadshedding, it does not mean that there is a high risk that it will be introduced.
Schedules up to Stage 16 are currently being finalised, but Eskom head of transmission Segomoco Scheppers says there is no reason to panic, as they don’t intend to get to that stage.
Use power sparingly
Cassim has called on consumers to reduce their power use, by switching off non-essential appliances, using less energy intensive appliances, and being cognisant of their power usage, especially at peak times.
The power utility has also flagged a new phenomenon: Inverters charging up directly after a bout of loadshedding is causing a new peak in power use.
Eskom has asked consumers to be mindful of when they re-charge their inverters, the use of which is becoming more and more commonplace.
Cassim has again apologised to South Africans and promised that they are doing their best to bring the power crisis to an end.
To ensure loadshedding does not escalate to Stage 8 this winter (worst case scenario), Eskom says they are focusing on the following:
- Reducing unplanned losses in the generation fleet
- Managing planned maintenance to the minimum level of maintenance required over winter
- Increasing diesel burn at the open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) (The Minister of Electricity has previously said there is currently R30 billion earmarked to buy diesel this winter)
- Driving the ”Generation Operational Recovery Programme” with the support of our Board to sustainably recover the performance of the plants over the next 24 months
- Leadership stability, skills interventions, partnering with industry and other Government departments
Eskom says the biggest impact we can all make is to use electricity sparingly, especially during the peaks, which will go a long way to ensure Stage 8 loadshedding is not needed.
Watch the entire Eskom briefing below:
